Q3 Strongest Quarter of the Year vs. 2020

By Bob West

California farmers’ reduced use of restricted use pesticides has been a recurring theme through 2021, but the third quarter of 2021 appears to show the first signs of a bottom to this market, according to initial data from Meister Media’s PURE Intel+.

The number of treated acres during July – September 2021 looks to come in slightly greater than 28 million, which still represents a 6% drop from 2020 (see chart), but this is marked improvement from the 20% drop in the first quarter of 2021 and the 12% drop reported in the second quarter.

Year Q3 Treated Acres Change from Previous Year
2017 31.7 million 2%
2018 31.5 million -1%
2019 33.0 million 5%
2020 29.7 million -10%
2021 28.1 million* -6%

*Estimate based on preliminary October 2021 data

Causes for the year-over-year reduction have been well documented, and this comes on the heels of an even greater decline from 2019 to 2020. Almonds (decrease of 1.3 million treated acres in Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2020), cotton (700,000 treated acres), walnuts (350,000 treated acres), pistachios (200,000 treated acres) and wine grapes (175,000 treated acres) represent for the most significant year-over-year declines in the third quarter from a crop perspective. Meanwhile, treated acreage is up for romaine lettuce, fresh tomatoes, and Brussel sprouts, but those increases are all fairly minimal and don’t come close to offsetting the decreases from the other crops.

Treated acreage dropped for every product type with significant treated acreage for this period, including adjuvants (decrease of 1.2 million treated acres in Q3 2021 vs. Q3 2020), insecticides (1 million treated-acre decrease), herbicides (600,000 treated-acre decrease, and fungicides (500,000 treated-acre decrease).

 

PURE Intel+ is a comprehensive database of every pesticide application made to all agricultural crops produced throughout California. PURE Intel+ is updated monthly to provide current and actionable market intelligence that will help drive your business forward. For more information about PURE Intel+ or to schedule a demo, contact Meister Media’s Bob West at 440-602-9129 or [email protected].

September California Market Report: Growers continue cutting pesticide applications through summer

By Bob West

Our publication of preliminary August pesticide application data means farmers still have four months’ worth of applications remaining in 2021. However, the reality is that California’s farmers make roughly 85% of their annual pesticide applications in the first seven months of the year, so we have a clear picture of just how tough 2021 has been for pesticide suppliers (manufacturers and retailers alike) doing business in the Golden State.

Based on application data reported by PURE Intel+ thus far, California farmers will make 85 million to 88 million treated acres worth of applications of restricted use pesticides in 2021, which represents a drop of roughly 14 million to 17 million from 2020 levels and even more from the market’s high point in 2017. As we’ve reported previously, this year-over-year drop impacts nearly every crop group, every type of pesticide, and every county in the state to varying degrees.

The largest drop on a percentage basis can be found among cotton growers. Cotton isn’t a core California crop and acreage has been dropping for a number of years as water shortage grow more severe. (The preliminary number of planted acres of cotton in California this year is roughly 125,000 – down considerably from 325,000 in 2017.) But the drop in applications from 2020 to 2021 is far more significant than in previous years as much of this production has moved back out of the state. As a result, treated acres for the January to August 2021 timeframe are roughly 60% down compared to the average figure for the four previous years.

Meanwhile, tree nuts represent the crop group receiving the most treated acres of pesticides annually, so it’s no surprise that they account for the largest drop in total treated acres from last year. To be specific, applications to tree nut crops are down roughly 20% from 2020 and 15% from the four-year average as growers reduce acreage and make fewer applications.

 

PURE Intel+ is a comprehensive database of every pesticide application made to all agricultural crops produced throughout California. PURE Intel+ is updated monthly to provide current and actionable market intelligence that will help drive your business forward. For more information about PURE Intel+ or to schedule a demo, contact Meister Media’s Bob West at 440-602-9129 or [email protected].

August Update: California Farmers’ Challenges Remain

By Bob West, Business, Director of Data Products for Meister Media Worldwide

A range of climatic and market challenges continues impacting the California agriculture market and resulting in a significant reduction in the number of treated acres of pesticide applications month after month this year. And, unfortunately, preliminary July data indicates one of the largest year-over-year drops in any single month of 2021 vs. 2020 thus far.

Based on preliminary July data collected from across the state for PURE Intel+, we estimate that California farmers will report 13 million to 13.5 million treated acres in July 2021 compared to 16.4 million treated acres in 2020 and 17.9 million treated acres the previous year. This year-over-year drop impacts every significant product category tracked in PURE Intel+, led primarily by adjuvants and insecticides.

Pesticide Application Data for January – July

  2019 2020 2021*
Growers 20,410 19,992 18,750
Sites 66,171 62,664 65,660
Applications 2,433,011 2,411,822 2,174,494
Treated acres 79,599,751 78,887,879 68,647,437

 

*  July 2021 data includes projections based on preliminary actual data and historical data.

At the crop level, the largest year-over-year drop can be found in almonds – roughly 25% to 30% fewer treated acres in July 2021 vs. July 2020 as lower commodity prices and limited water availability challenge growers to manage input costs as closely as ever. Year-over-year drops can be seen with nearly all over crops as well, and cotton stands out from the other crops for the significance of its decline – 1.1 million treated acres in July 2020 to approximately 600,000 treated acres in July 2021. In fact, the only crops on which we have data showing an increase in treated acres are lettuce (all types) and alfalfa.

PURE Intel+ is a comprehensive database of every pesticide application made to all agricultural crops produced throughout California. PURE Intel+ is updated monthly to provide current and actionable market intelligence that will help drive your business forward. For more information about PURE Intel+ or to schedule a demo, contact Meister Media’s Bob West at 440-602-9129 or [email protected].

PURE Intel+ Market Update: July 2021

Pesticide applications to California farms have dropped dramatically from last year as farmers confront severe challenges with drought, labor, transportation and commodity prices.

 

By Bob West, Business, Director of Data Products for Meister Media Worldwide

 

Through the first half of 2021, a combination of factors have combined to significantly reduce the amount of pesticides being applied on farms throughout California. According to Meister Media’s PURE Intel+ data platform, the number of treated acres will drop from 62.5 million for the first six months of 2020 to 51.4 million for the first half of 2021. This represents an 18% drop that is also considerably lower than the treated acre figures for the three previous years. (Note: A treated acre is defined as 1 acre of crop that is treated by any single restricted use pesticide. A tank mix of three restricted use products applied to 1 acre would produce three treated acres.)

 

This drop is occurring on farms across the entire state and among farms growing nearly every crop as all growers grapple with a lack of water and available labor, which has forced many of them to change their planting plans, their chemical programs, or both. Here are the projected number of treated acres for the first six months of 2021 for each of California’s top five counties (in terms of treated acres thus far in 2021):

County 2021 Treated Acres (through July) 2021 vs. 2020
Fresno 11,096,248 -18%
Kern 7,619,005 -16%
Tulare 5,999,645 -5%
San Joaquin 4,236,946 -9%
Monterey 4,108,913 0%
33,060,756 -12%

 

Imperial, Monterey, Santa Barbara and Ventura are the only four of the state’s 58 counties that we project may end up with equal or slightly greater treated acres in 2021. Unfortunately, those four counties only accounted for 14% of the total number of treated acres in California in 2020 and their projected 2021 growth is minimal, so losses in other counties bring down the number of treated acres for the entire state.

 

Tree nuts (particularly almonds) and grapes account for the largest drops in the number of treated acres, but the PURE Intel+ data shows a drop in treated acres for every crop group other than cole vegetables. The most significant drops compared to 2020 are in cotton (down 57%), tree nuts (down 23%), grapes (down 21%), grains / cereals (down 18%) and fruiting vegetables (down 16%).

 

Not surprisingly, nearly every category of pesticide product tracked by PURE Intel+ shows a fairly significant year-over-year decline as well. In fact, year-over-year growth can only be found in miticides, thus far.

 

Slightly more than 60% of pesticide applications in the state occur in the first six months of the year, which means we’re projecting a full-year figure of 82 million to 88 million treated acres for 2021. This would represent a year-over-year decline of 14 to 20 million acres or roughly 17%.

 

“The water situation is dire for some growers in some parts of the state, but those growers – such as in the Sacramento Delta region or on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley – largely knew they’d be facing some cuts this year,” notes Dave Eddy, Editor of Meister Media’s American Fruit Grower and Western Fruit Grower magazine. “Most fruit and nut growers have enough water to produce excellent crops this year. However, there has already been some land taken out of production in preparation for what many see as coming water shortages, which will definitely occur next season if we don’t have a wet winter.

 

“Meanwhile, the lack of labor has mostly been a problem for fruit growers of hand-picked crops, such as stone fruits, and the coming heavy harvest season could be problematic,” he adds.

 

“In addition to water and labor, transportation is another issue,” adds Carol Miller, Editor of Meister Media’s American Vegetable Grower magazine. “There’s simply not enough drivers. That will likely drive lower value crops out of California.”

 

Ultimately, 2021 looks to be a uniquely challenging year for California farmers.

 

“It is one tough year for growers of tree nuts and grapes because the prices they receive have been so low,” observes Eddy. “Wine grape growers have had an overproduction problem and faced attendant low prices for the past several years, provoking industry leaders to make the highly unusual call of asking growers to pull vines of certain varieties in certain regions.”

 

The almond market represents such a large portion of the California market (27% of all treated acres in 2020), that problems in that are particularly impactful for the state as a whole. “Low prices have left almond growers with such thin operating margins, even the most careful growers are forced to cut back somewhere,” adds Eddy. “Most almond growers won’t cut back on expenses such as pollination, as that can really shrink crop size, but most are making cuts in some of their crop inputs. Even some of the best growers I know, who detest cutting corners, have told me they’re scaling back on their crop inputs in the 15% range.”

 

PURE Intel+ is a comprehensive database of every pesticide application made to all agricultural crops produced throughout California. PURE Intel+ is updated monthly to provide current and actionable market intelligence that will help drive your business forward. For more information about PURE Intel+ or to schedule a demo, contact Meister Media’s Bob West at 440-602-9129 or [email protected].